Poker Chips and Tips – The Red Queen Effect

"A slow sort of country" said the Queen. "Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to stay in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!"
Through the Looking Glass: And What Alice Found There, by Lewis Carroll.

No, the Red Queen Effect is not about the feeling you get when the queen of hearts spikes on the river to give your opponent the nut flush to beat you. In this case in question is a walking (make that running), talking chess piece invented by Lewis Carroll.

The Red Queen Effect (aka the Red Queen Principle) is a term that was coined back in 1973 by evolutionary biologist Leigh Van Valen, and was named for the aforementioned roving chess piece. Basically the principle states that living organisms must keep evolving with each generation to maintain their position relative to the other organisms around them. Running and running, essentially, to stay in the same place. To give a crude example, if wild rabbits are able to run a little bit faster with passing generations (because the slow ones are more likes to get killed off before they can reproduce), then the foxes who hunt them and depend on them for food must also be able to run a little faster, as generations go by, in order to keep up. So, continuing evolutionary change is necessary just to maintain the same status within an ever-changing environment.

Don't worry. You haven't accidently picked up an issue of Popular Science. This is still Canadian Poker Player. I'm talking about all this scientific evolutionary stuff because I think it's actually very germane to the game of poker.

For example, in a micro sense, we can sometimes find ourselves in a Red Queen race in any given poker session. We sit down to play poker, committed to playing our best game and planning to make a profit. But for whatever reason - we are not playing as well as we think, our opponents are too good, or the poker gods are just in a persnickety mood that day - we lose. And lose. And lose some more. Then, like Alice and the Red Queen, we find ourselves running as hard and as fast as we can, just to try and get back to where we started.

But there's a macro poker application for this, too. The poker world itself is a kind of unique ecosystem. The two main life forms are, of course, fish and sharks. But that's too simple. There are countless different kinds of poker fish, with countless types of behaviors. Many fish are tiny guppies. We don't really notice them most of the time, but collectively they make up the bulk of the food supply. They never last long, getting killed off (busting out) pretty quickly. But it never seems to matter, because for every guppy that dies, ten more show up ready to take his place. Then there are some fish who are bigger, smarter, quicker. They'll get painful bites taken out of them now and then, but they can still survive for quite a long time. And then some fish are piranhas - nasty, aggressive, snapping little buggers. They want to be sharks. Some of them probably think they are sharks. But they're only delusional little fish.

Just as there are many kinds of poker fish, there are also different kinds of poker sharks. Some players are Angel sharks, heavily camouflaged bottom feeders who lie in wait to trap their prey. Some players are Mako sharks, hunters who use exceptional speed to overcome their quarry. And then there are the great predators: the Bull sharks, the Tiger sharks, the Great Whites. These are the ones who have a true gift for the kill. The ones who really sink their teeth into their work.

Thus, in our giant poker aquarium, you are existing as part of a vast ecosystem where your fellow life forms are complex, varied, and ever-evolving. You're swimming with stupid fish, mean fish, cute fish, and some fish who are smarter than they first appear. You're swimming with baby sharks, wannabe sharks, friendly sharks, and a few who are real cold-blooded killers. In this environment, you can never be complacent. You can never stand still. Not if you want to survive.

Even if you believe yourself to be a shark, sitting comfortably at the top of the food chain, you must keep evolving. You must keep running (swimming, if you prefer), forward, or you risk becoming extinct. Because if the fish don't get you, the other sharks will

Remember, some of those fish might not be as slow and stupid as you think. The smarter fish can learn from experience; they can adapt. A few of them will even grow up to be sharks themselves. So watch them carefully. If they get just a little bit quicker, so must you. If they alter their usual habits, you must alter the ways in which you hunt them. And keep in mind that maybe, just maybe, you're not quite as dangerous as you think.

For that matter, when the fish suddenly experience a huge population explosion (as has been happening in the poker world recently), sharks must adapt to that, too. One tiny fish by himself may not be any kind of a threat. But if a shark suddenly finds himself surrounded on all sides by a massive school of them, he may suffer the ignominious fate of being nibbled to death by guppies.

To put this back into a more regular poker context, look at it this way. When you first sit down at a game with players you don't know, it's really all about strategy - making the right plays, considering the odds, and so forth. But as the game progresses, this changes. If any of your opponents are any good at all, they'll be watching how you play. What sorts of hands do you call, bet, or raise with? Do you ever bluff? All this and so much more goes into their mental notebook (or cyber notebook, or actual notebook). And then they've got a read on you. They have evolved, because they are better players now than they were an hour ago. They can play better against you. So unless you are co-evolving with them - watching them, getting a good read on them - you are going to be at a major disadvantage. All because your opponent(s) kept moving forward while you were standing still.

The same principle applies to the general study of the game. Smart players will keep reading, keep practicing, keep analyzing. Working to improve their game. You had better, too, if you want to stay competitive. For ultimately, our poker ecosystem is very Darwinian. Luck may interfere with the short run, but in the long run it's all about survival of the fittest. So if you want to stay fit, keep running!